Apparently, even the Flying Spaghetti Monster has a sick sense of humour.
Archive for category Science
Today In Schadenfreude
Aug 28
Today’s observations from a campaigning novice come from my participation last night in a Senate candidates forum in the northern suburb of Perth. When trying to attract votes of engaged community members there are strategies that I think are obvious winners and losers, including:
Winners:
• Get some input on your uniform. If, like me, you have virtually no fashion sense and generally do not look in a mirror before exiting the house, check with someone who does. As mom used to say, it’s easy to be underdressed, but difficult to be over dressed.
• If you get 10 minutes to talk, use 5 and hand back the rest. I tend to over-explain things, especially when they are complicated issues, so trying extra hard to be concise has become very important to me.
• Try to talk last. This one has been very useful to learn. If you steer it such that you speak last, you can say in relation to the filibusters that have come before you, “I agree with X, but . . .” and save some time, as well as come off sane in relation to a point that might be right minded, but wrongly explained or too extreme.
• Study up ahead of time, but don’t use notes. I didn’t get to 95% of what I knew from my preparations, but referring to notes would have been tedious.
Losers:
• Overwhelm. For instance, both Wikileaks candidates showed up at the forum, as did 3 or 4 of their supporters, all in uniform (the black Wikileaks hoodies). Comes off like a gang or less than savoury political party in a room of maybe 30 audience members.
• Avoid polemic, and don’t even use the word, even if you know what it means (I’m looking right at you Socialists)
• Have one idea or policy. I mean honestly, some of these single issue parties really do give the elections for the Senate a carnival feel. As an environmental engineer, I surely do recognise the problems with overpopulation and resource use
• Filibuster. Yes Wikileaks, each party does get 10 minutes to present their case, but not 12 minutes, and not 12 minutes per member of the party at the meeting.
• Present your favourite conspiracy theory. Always entertaining, and I do love me a good one over the water cooler, but probably not a real good idea in front of a public you have not met before, with no evidence, and presented very emphatically (see polemic above)
• Don’t show up. The Coalition, Labor and the single owner Katter and Palmer parties didn’t even send a person along. Clearly their messages are better delivered through paid advertising and they need not actually engage with small groups of the public organised locally.
Given my accent and proclivity to drop the odd topical F-bomb when I get going, if you would have told me that I would come off as the reasonable, thoughtful alternative out of a group of 8 minor parties (including the Greens), I would have paid about 5:1.
As a follow up to my previous post, I would like to add my thanks to Jim Hansen for his long service as a government employee upon his retirement.
He has a great body of work, has made a lot of sound predictions, and doesn’t shy away from controversy related to his science work. In fact, that is why he is retiring, so that he can work as an activist full time. So congratulations, goodbye and hope to see you soon, Jim.
In reading about his position on carbon pricing through the above link, I note that my opinion (which I developed over years in working in parallel) matches his for the precisely same reasons when it comes to a carbon tax vs. a trading scheme:
“In his 2009 testimony to the House Ways and Means Committee, Hansen laid out his basic critique of cap-and-trade: “(1) unpredictable price volatility, (2) it makes millionaires on Wall Street and other trading floors at public expense, (3) it is an invitation to blackmail by utilities that threaten “blackout coming” to gain increased emission permits, (4) it has overhead costs and complexities, inviting lobbyists and delaying implementation.”
Nice to know that I see things the same way as someone that smart occasionally.
More like a drumbeat
Jan 9
Where I had previously talked about the drip, drip drip, snap progression of natural systems, the rate of the evidence is now coming in more like a drumbeat of information that will be seen in hindsight as a truism.
I offer for your consideration the following:
NOAA’s current state of the climate report, establishing 2012 as a record for temperatures and chaos related to entropy; and,
The Australian Bureau Meteorology has been required to add two new colours to its palette to forecast temperatures over Australia. Now, they may have revised yesterday’s map based on the actual (record) temperatures achieved vs. what was forecast, but have a look at the map of temperatures achieved, and rest assured, they will still need the new colours again soon and regularly in the future.
So, how’d we do in our predictions? And will I be foolish enough to publish a few more?
Well, as predictors go, I’m no Nate Silver. But that would require a devotion to pure math I just ain’t got.
On the other hand, I predict multiple things, so you know, its harder to hold up a record.
Anyway, on to the specifics:
• The carbon tax will end up being a non-issue, or even net positive to the Gillard government with the electorate when it comes into effect on 1 July.
Spot on.
• Kevin Rudd will not successfully challenge Julia Gillard to take over leadership of the Labor Party.
Spot on, and although only three weeks out, I wish I had tried to find a bet on it.
• Europe is already in a recession, and when they finally do the numbers after the fact, it will be a big one. My guess is a drop in GDP in the Euro zone of 3% and a duration of 2 years. Keynesian economic theory will win out in the argument over austerity or stimulus, but the Germans (and others) who want to paint the sovereign debt issues in Europe as a morality tale will realise this way to late, or refuse to admit it at least.
Still in the running, with all the timely stuff spot on, and the Germans are actually still taking that line.
• Greece will default on its sovereign debt after failing to come to an agreement with its lenders and failing to get assistance from the European Central Bank (due to the point above) and will therefore leave the euro and reintroduce its own currency so that it can devalue it in order to address its problem as an alternative to the austerity program being pushed on it (that cannot work in any case).
Nope. Maybe still this year, but it depends on what the Greek government is forced to propose next, and whether protest on the streets and escalation ensues.
• The USA will escape any serious damage from the european sovereign debt crisis and have surprisingly good growth in 2012 of about 2% of GDP.
Well, the final numbers for 2012 aren’t in, but when they are this is going to be spot on or near enough to.
• Barack Obama will be re-elected as President in the USA over Mitt Romney.
Oh, I rock, spot on. This one is particularly satisfying as I did manage to get a bet on this one, and I had the economy predicted right in the first place.
• Synaptor apps will be one of the biggest internet successes of the year in Australia
Dead wrong. Many problems with the market, the market fit, schedule, etc. Still technologically very good, and the next app is nearing release that should have more broad appeal.
OK, so let’s see if I have nay predictions for 2013. I really don’t have any big shocking ones, as it isn’t like 2012, when there seemed to be a lot of important things coming up that could change history.
Well, I shouldn’t say that, as we will likely have a Federal election in August, or soon after. This government will very much want to pick its time, and will need all the luck it can find to overcome the many stumbles and own-goals of 2012, which distracts from a pretty solid policy output. This government, on balance, deserves to be returned at this point, but only just on balance. If they fuck up even one seriously important thing from this point on, then its the Mad Monk for us for sure.
Economically, I think we have to bank on things getting better, albeit slowly. Australia should have at target, or just below GDP growth. Mining investment may be on the wane, but mining income from its investments will be ok to good, depending on how much growth we see in China on a recovering price. But the continuing recovery will not be wild, and I don’t think the Sydney market is going to go through the roof. Or Perth. Maybe New York, late in the year once any Sandy stimulus is finally passed and works its way into that market.
The US is going to go on at or just below target GDP growth, maybe 2-2.5% growth. It will be constrained by links to Europe, and its own dabbling with austerity when the fight over the debt ceiling raise occurs in 2 months. Keep some money in the bank to make some good buys in the market during that time of uncertainty, as there are likely to be anxious sellers of good value based on how bad the noise of that argument gets, despite the fact that we all know how it will come out. The debt ceiling will get raised to cover the money already committed by the US House in legislation and will not default in any actual way on its debt. Virtually nothing will happen to US interest rates even if any of the ratings agencies bother to lower their ratings during the manufactured crisis. I mean, do we take anything these venal idiots seriously anymore anyway? The US stock market will take a hit and be volatile then, but will recover and have a good to very good year. Who knows in the Australian market, and it’s pretty boring anyway.
The ECB will, as quietly as possible, start carrying out its actions in a manner that is consistent with a belief in keynesian economics, and also act as the lender of last resort as required, to keep the euro alive.
It’s going to be another very cool year in science, from NASA to to the Halron Collider, but I have no predictions there.
drip, drip, drip. . .
Aug 10
. . . crash! That’s how it happens. Did you see the Greenland melt this summer? Pretty impressive if you are into seeing rapid change. Things just creep along for a while, and you see smartarse climate deniers on the intertubes or fat box mouthing off about how one hard winter in NY (where that has happened pretty periodically since the ice age) is the proof that “global warming doesn’t exist, because its snowing in NY.” Then you start to see irrefutable shifts, like when water starts to boil after a long slow heating.
Where are those blow hards this summer, where something like 42,000 individual records for high temperatures have been recorded across the USA? Yeah, and I wasn’t doing it either, because I have the brains to know that an individual weather event does not mean anything in isolation. However, a statistically significant trend is another matter altogether. Check out the second video in this recent release from NASA.
I also notice one of the Koch brothers’ paid researchers has spent their money, did the additional research he proposed, and found precisely what has been reported by the IPCC is not only in fact true, but supported with additional weight by his research.
The only question that remains to be answered is, will the yanks actually wait until things are way to far gone to take any action, or can they still make a difference. Based on the rate of change it appears we may now be seeing, I guess I bet on the former.
But I’m a confirmed cynic.
via Krugman
May 21
. . . well actually from Michael Tobis via Romm, via Krugman
A pretty accurate picture of something I have been talking about for a long time.
The small peak to the left is not, I suspect, even as large as actually represented, but if it is I am sure that has to do with the false equivalency presented by the mainstream media.
Nice to see the support of opinions I have held for a while being supported by those I admire in their area of expertise.
The one minute introduction to Synaptor is now available here
My company is a part owner of Synaptor, and we supplied the technical HSE backing to the IP in its products.
If you want to try the App on your iPhone or iPad it is a free download on the iTunes store. Also Android “soon” apparently. I would be appreciative of any feedback you have on the theory or application of the tool, or (as it turns out) your particular use for the tool beyond its original intention. A consultant in QLD is using it to keep a “live” hazard register on multiple sites that change every few months. My office manager keeps our whole hazards and effects register on it. I want to see some environmental ngo use it to make observations to keep tabs on big oil or big banks somewhere in the world.
But what it really does is lead you through an excellent HSE observation, if you need help. But of course a useful observation is really based on the conversation rather than a technical argument. And the truth is, lots of people don’t have a good technique (or recognise one they do have) and need to learn how to identify what works and what doesn’t. We will have a training course streaming through another App that is coming soon that will handle training records and competency matrix related tasks, as well as deliver the training content (if you don’t want to keep any records) for free. We intend to keep building tools to assist with the implementation of ISO compliant HSE Management systems and deliver them for free, or next to nothing, until we take over the world apparently. But I don’t lead that company.
I keep the fires on in the boring old HSE consulting business to make sure we don’t starve before that little startup goes.
More evidence piles up
Mar 26
Additional information is working its way into mainstream media regarding the number and severity of weather events, and whether they are possibly the result of climate changes. Its a question I have raised and discussed a of times (here or number here).
This was also coincidentally the subject of a discussion between myself and my buddy Otto recently. The bottom line, that I think I got his buy in on, although he remains skeptical about pretty much anything if left alone long enough, is that an average rise in temperature worldwide will be more likely to manifest itself as chaos due to an increase in entropy. Therefore, these latest scientifically verifiable observations support my thesis.
So, the Minerals Rent Tax has made it through the Senate and will become law on 1 July 2012, delivering a 30% tax on the wealth dug out of OUR ground by a few to make THEM bazillions. And despite the likely legal challenges from Twiggy on a constitutional basis that are unlikely to hold water {cough cough, petroleum rent tax at 40%}, the law is likely to hold. And fair enough. There is certainly nothing wrong with all of Australia sharing in the wealth of minerals we all own, and nothing unfair in taxation that is drawn from wealth that is currently being generated in Western Australia versus the more populous eastern states. Remember that it was only up until the very recent past that Western Australia wasn’t supported annually through sharing wealth of the east over here. You didn’t hear anything about unfairness of taxation from the sand-gropers when their schools and roads were all being subsidised by the folks out east. Remember, we may need them again when the boom goes bust, because the GDP in Australia is still primarily generated in NSW and VIC, despite the current mining boom (ref. Wikipedia)
But so as not to miss out on the news cycle that reported the Minerals Rent Tax, one of the current new developments that he is not suing anyone over, Clive Palmer instead waded into the conspiracy theory market, accusing Greenpeace of being funded by the CIA to undermine Australian coal exports. He’s already backing off the statements made, as he is demonstrably full of shit, but I bet the retractions don’t make the national radio and TV like the first assertions did. Funny that.
Now if Clive was really worried about a conspiracy of foreigners trying to shape the debate here in Australia, he would watch a bit of Media Watch and then look into the funding of the fluffy sounding Australian Environment Foundation, and Australian Climate Science Coalition. What he would see is that virtually all the funding coming from German and US agrichemical companies and the American Climate Science Coalition. The AEF and CSC promote views that are based on climate change denial from the US and have an agenda on the Murray Darling Basin that are not in the public interest as much as they are in the interest of the agrichemicals industry. Also very funny that.
Pity none of the networks that take statements from the AEF point out these connections when they are basically reading off the AEF’s media releases to meet their story deadlines, or that Clive isn’t railing on the TV about them.
Now I acknowledge that a lot of these super rich mining magnates got there by their own skill and hard work, but an equal number got there by coming from a life of privilege, their connections and inheritance, or simply making a big pile of money a huge pile of money by turning the handle on machine already invented for them.
That’s cunning, not intelligence. So the next time you are at something that Clive is presenting at, feel free to call him out on his bullshit, as you are more likely than not to win the argument. He has all the intellectual depth of a carpark puddle, and is possibly also going burko.