Sgt Hulka Uncut

uncensored opinion and technical information on stuff

A point on the floods

Jan 18

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Climate Change, Science | Comments off

I note that 2010 has been reported to be the second hottest year on record after 2005, and that 9 of the top 10 hottest years on record start with a 2. I also note as we watch the floods in Victoria (a couple 1 in 200 yr events) immediately following the major floods in Queensland with their massive losses and areas covered that are bigger than many countries, which are proceeded by major floods in 2010 in the USA, Europe and Pakistan, that there is a direct tie-in to climate change.

Remember, climate change isn’t about the weather, to which I would include these individual events. But climate change is about shifts in weather patterns such as la nina and el nino, that do lead to localised weather events which are extreme. Remember that the heating of the planet by a couple degrees isn’t likely to be manifested as a uniform rise everywhere. It is far more likely to manifest itself like any system that more heat is added to, through the addition of more chaos. Think of a pot of boiling water that moves and mixes itself more and more rapidly until it boils. The previous example of this I noted that appear to be on the increase are cyclones (hurricanes).

Another effect of the rise in temperature is the carrying capacity of air to hold water. All gases can contain more water vapour as they rise in temperature. This larger mass of water is then available to be removed from the air in localised events (torrential rains) as have been tied to all of the flooding events identified above. Clearly, lots of additional water has been stored in the atmosphere in 2005 as compared to cooler years, and this year it has been triggered to fall in large amounts, through the otherwise normal patterns driven by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of la nina and el nino.

The patterns here in Australia tend to mean we have no “average” weather, but instead have periods of drought followed by periods of flood, with this years floods breaking what is about a 9 year drought most everywhere. The only difference in this year’s rains are the extreme volumes of them over almost the whole country. So, while I think the patterns are normal, I suggest that the volumes of rain that have caused the floods we have this year may be a local sign of a global problem of climate change.

This year’s idea

Jan 6

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Climate Change, Good Ideas, Science | Comments off

Not my idea, of course. I am not really the big idea kinda guy. Big ideas are why I hang around guys like my mate Sean and Steve. I’m more the “how the hell are we going to do that” kinda guy. But I read a good idea that you can find out more about here when I was catching up on what my professional organisation is up to this year.

They solicited ideas from about 100,000 people to get 7,000 ideas from which to choose, and then selected this one:

“Make it so people in developing communities can use agricultural waste they produce for energy for cooking and heating.”

A very good idea. So I am going to see what I can come up with this year to do that. I will start with some research on the places where the solution could be applied through the partners in the program, Engineers Without Borders. I will first try to see what kind of waste characterisation they have, along with the volumes of waste produced to assess them as a fuel source. Then I need some data on fuel requirements for, say 200 L of hot water per person per day. Then some pretreatment options and a process for conversion, design, sizing, economics and a bunch of other stuff. I will post what I find out as I go.

New Year’s Resolution’s

Jan 5

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Climate Change | Comments off

Probably, BP has spent enough time on the wall-o-shame, not because they have changed their ways in any demonstrable way, but rather that no one is much interested in the oil spill any more.

I am not really into arbitrary start or end points, but I’m talking to my buddy from Minnesota the other day, and I am reminded that I am a lame arse, and haven’t updated my blog since it got banned from the Company website. Well, sometime close to there. And then I did get kinda busy doing some billable work, but not so much that I couldn’t have a rant now and then, but then just never wrote anything. Maybe I was saving up energy for the big writing I did near the end of the year. Whatever.

It certainly wasn’t due to the fact that nothing annoying and deserving of even a lengthy rant have not occurred, even in Australia, where generally we have few complaints.

So, I am committed to writing regularly this year, and we will see how it goes. Perhaps nothing will come up that sets me off? Hmmmn, not likely. Probably I will also put up some techo crap on current subjects of interest, such as coal seam gas production (CSG), and underground coal gasification (UCG), and some opinion on whether either is a good idea. I will try to keep it as short as possible.

Also, I have read recently about an innovation in carbon capture and storage I need to investigate to find out if this change make CCS a possibility, or if it remains a pipe-dream and significant waste of government support.

Other topics chosen upon response required to comments.

Hulka out

The Case For Nationalisation

Jun 4

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Evil Motherfuckers, Other Topics | 3 Comments

Right, so now that I have tried to add something positive to the situation in an attempt to stop the BP leak, I think it is now time to begin to examine consequences for the company itself based on what we know already. My conclusion may seem extreme to some, but I am joined already in arriving at the point I will get to by respected figures such as Robert Reich, the former Labour Secretary in the US.

First, I want to lay out what has been established from sworn testimony before the US Congress to this point with regard to the BP catastrophe. More details will come out in the multiple incident investigations that are ongoing, but there are some serious findings already, including:

1. There is evidence that the blow-out preventer (BOP):
• Hydraulic lines to control valves were known to have been leaking;
• Its shear valve was not rated as strong enough to cut all the tubular that was sent through it;
• A battery was missing from the control panel onboard the rig that powered control for a third type of cut-off valve on the BOP, a dead man valve;
• The drawings onboard the Deepwater Horizon did not match the actual system on the sea floor as it had been modified, and no updates had been provided to the rig; and finally,
• The breakaway riser didn’t, causing further damage as it tipped over.

2. In addition, the Deepwater Horizon did not have an emergency response plan that covered this type of disaster, because it got the requirement for doing an EIA waived by the Bush administration’s agency (MMS) that has been proven in court to be criminally corrupted by energy/mining lobbyists at the time.

3. There were other identified potential failings and conflicts in the emergency notification and response on the rig as the immediate disaster unfolded there. But I won’t even go into those to make my point at this time.

4. Add to the above the facts we know about the safety and environmental record of BP North America:

• In 2005, 15 people were killed and injured 170 in an explosion and fire at the Texas City Refinery. Two years later safety folks in the US (OSHA) fined BP $20 million for failing to act to correct the deficiencies cited in the investigation of the Texas City disaster. Last year, OSHA fined BP another $87 million at the Texas City refinery and their other refinery in Ohio got a fine of $3 million. Once again, BP had failed to correct known deficiencies that led to the Texas City disaster, as well as many other serious risks.

• In the past 3 years, the two refineries of BP in the USA own 97% of what OSHA classes as egregious health and safety violations, including what are known as wilful violations. Those are the ones where you know something could kill someone, but you let it them go ahead and do it anyway.

• In 2006, after attempting to hide the fact for a while, BP admitted to a 270,000-gallon crude oil spill from its Prudhoe Bay pipeline that spread over 2 acres of the Alaskan tundra. They got a $20 million fine for that one from the EPA.

Now, I work in the oil E&P industry, and before that I worked in refineries and chemical and manufacturing factories. And I have worked that whole time in the technical environmental and safety areas. So, I have an opinion on the above. BP is all about cutting costs. It’s cost savings program in Texas City rubbed up against its HSE management system and spontaneously combusted to cause that disaster. It says so right in the Baker Report on the subject. It’s cost saving maintenance program in Prudhoe Bay failed to detect and repair the leak in its pipeline there, causing that spill. There is evidence that it treats EPA and OSHA fines as a lower cost option of doing business than actually correcting its failures to protect workers and the environment. And there is evidence to suggest that it pressures it contractors to save money by skipping essential controls. Like the control tests on its cement plug that Halliburton was installing in the Macondo well that were ignored, even though they showed non-conformances in differential pressure. Like the heated argument the head of the rig (OIM) and the lead BP representative on the rig were reported to have had about the drilling program the night before the Macondo blowout.

I have always respected the opinions I have heard from Robert Reich, and he reckons that due to the above facts, that BP should be put into receivership by the US government, as if it was becoming bankrupt. He cites the similar thing that was done with failed banks and trading houses in the recent global financial crisis. But I think Robert misses the point.

I reckon BP should instead be nationalised by the US government because it has lost its license to operate. I highlight the term, because BP can have various licenses from government agencies to carry out activities, but what I mean by license to operate is the more general right given to it by society in general if it agrees to play along with the general laws, precedents and societal norms of the yanks. And I think it is time for Barack Obama to invite the head of BP, Tony Hayward, to the White House and let him know that BP had lost its license to operate anywhere in the USA, meaning:

• All BP assets operating in the territory of the USA would be immediately nationalised, and become owned by the US government;
• These assets would be sold off as soon as possible to any qualified bidder that wished to buy them in the USA;
• The US government would use the proceeds of the sale of all BP assets to clean up the damage of the oil spills, wrecked lives and wrecked livelihoods of its victims; and,
• Any remaining funds would be forwarded to BP in the UK.

This would be followed in my version of how it goes by, “Now fuck off out of my office and out of my country, Tony. You are persona non grata”.

See, while I agree with Robert Reich that this spill could kill BP through bankruptcy, I’m not certain we can rely on that, and it definitely needs killing. It needs to be told, and a message needs to be sent out to any other corporation (bank, miner, whatever) that you can lose your license to operate in a democratic society, and you have crossed the line of acceptable behaviour to all the inhabitants of the USA (including its plants and animals) far too many times.

Why we hate BP

Jun 4

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Evil Motherfuckers, Good Ideas, Other Topics | Comments off

Update on my post from yesterday is as follows. I have submitted my suggestion to BP through the process defined by them. However, they made it so difficult and bureaucratic, that I nearly gave up.

First, they wouldn’t allow anything but a US phone number in their electronic form, and with all the bells and whistles they had turned on it, it couldn’t be read by anything other than the latest version of acrobat.

Second, their form assumed I wanted to sell them something, despite being named a suggestion form. There were boxes for me to give all kinds of details on the parts or service I had, but no space for just a free form dump of the free and constructive suggestion I had.

So, I hacked their electronic form, got the email addy they could have just posted online, and now I will just sit back and “Wait for a response on your suggestion from BP, as we have received over 4000 and each will take some time to technically review”.

OK, thanks I will do that, you evil cocks

What is a dynamic plug?

Jun 3

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Good Ideas, Other Topics | Comments off

I have been wanting to post on the BP catastrophe for some time, but had to clear the decks of work first.

What I am going to start with is a proposal for a fix. I reckon if the US government can get a movie director in for ideas on how to plug the well in the short term, perhaps they could use a suggestion from an engineer. I am not sure my fix will work, but I think it has a chance. In another post, I will deal with fixing the bigger issue with BP itself.

OK, so to start, I would try to stop the flow with what I will call a dynamic plug, a valve that will only activate after being inserted deep inside the well, and activated by a column of drilling mud at plug flow (or in a flow regime with a sufficiently high Reynolds number that it the velocity in the cross sectional flow is uniform, literally like a cylindrical plug of liquid coming down the tube)

To build the dynamic plug, I would start with something they have already tried somewhat successfully, the siphon tube. Before they tried the top kill, they stuck a flexible tube down the well bore and were sucking out an amount of the oil flow to pump to the surface. I would do that again, but this time I would attach to the tube a couple of expandable cones to the shaft of the tube, about a metre back from the end of it. It would look like this:
plug collapsed
The front expandable positioning (EP) cone would be flow through mesh, or just a cage that would position the siphon tube in the centre of the well casing. I would expand this when I was ready to make the attempt, after starting to pump mud down the hole, but before the mud reached the dynamic plug assembly, like this:
positioner open
Then, just as the plug flow of mud reached the dynamic plug, the rear expandable cone would be released from its closed position and would snap into place to seal the well and the dense mud flow behind it would hold the well closed until the well could be permanently plugged with cement above the dynamic plug. A tube with an inflatable end (like used in an angioplasty) might also work.
plug open
The key is that the plug it self doesn’t have to be strong enough to stop the flow of oil, but instead ust form the seal for the mass of mud that will hold it in place.

I would insert the tube down the well head through the blow-out preventer (BOP) and far enough into the well that I could pump mud down behind the siphon tube at a fast enough rate that the mud would reach plug flow, and also far enough down the well that the mass of mud behind the dynamic plug would be able to hold in the pressure of the reservoir:
insertion

Rants at 140 per go

May 28

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Other Topics | Comments off

Hey, for anyone following out there, I also want to let you know that I have also setup a twitter account – @willthiel (because some SOB had already taken SgtHulka).

So, when I don’t have time to do a nice full considered and researched rant, I can always have a mini spew of up to 140 characters.

Most of the first have to do with the BP leak, as I am paying quite a bit of attention to that recently.

Climate Change For The Lazy

May 28

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Bad Ideas, Climate Change, Science | Comments off

So, I once again have found myself pretty busy at work and have not been able to post as much as I like. However, today I have come across something worth sharing. I get in trouble with the censors if I play the man instead of the ball, so I won’t. But I will point out a phenomenally good evisceration of one of the most entertaining of the climate change deniers, Christopher Monkton, Lord Somethingorother.

Professor John Abraham from the university of St. Thomas, Minnesota has done a particularly good job of examining every claim made by Chris Monkton, including getting in contact with every one of his named sources to confirm with them if the references used are both technically accurate and also whether they accurately represent the position that the source cited intended to make in context.

“The number of errors Chris Monckton makes is so enormous it would take a thesis to go through every single one of them.” So then he basically does present what would be a thesis paper on the multiple ways in which untruths and misrepresentations can be passed off as “fact” by a good showman.

The presentation is excellent, and I do mean presentation, since he has posted it in Powerpoint form with voice over. If you have 83 minutes, I would give it a listen and then do what I always encourage people to do – look into the issue yourself with the references provided. That is, unless you are so lazy you can’t even listen.

I bet the Vatican runs on coal

Apr 15

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Bad Ideas, Climate Change, Economics, International | Comments off

The cost of producing power by burning coal is currently the cheapest of any fuel if you look strictly at material cost per heat unit.

But unfortunately, it needs to be examined more holistically, based on recent evidence in combination with my previous research. Currently, coal burners for power production are not required to internalise the costs of things such as:

HSE Performance and possible criminal prosecution
Our Australian coal companies have nothing to do with the recent coal mining disaster in the USA. But keep in mind that our coal producers have to compete with the likes of Massey Energy Company, and we know they all compete on keeping “operating” costs low. In the case of Massey, the deaths of 29 workers in early April were likely the result of the cost containment efforts of Massey in the areas of installing necessary HSE controls and even in paying fines in full and on time. The U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration has issued more than $900,000 in fines for the Upper Big Branch mine in the past year, according to federal data compiled by Bloomberg News. Massey is appealing more than $250,000 of the largest fines, among them one in January for ventilation systems that are supposed to prevent the buildup of methane gas and coal dust that can cause explosions, like the one in the current incident. Massey has a history of disputing U.S. findings of safety violations at its mines, including one in Virginia in where 25 people were killed in 1970, records show. Of $1.77 million in safety-related fines that the Mine Safety and Health Administration lodged against the Upper Big Branch mine since 2006, Massey has paid $364,886, or 20 percent, according to agency data.

Note that someone does pay theses cost avoided by Massey at present however, the government and families of those killed.

Great Barrier Reef grounding
This month in Australia, we also have another unintended impact of the coal sales, with the grounding of the coal ship, Shen Neng 1. Whatever the outcome of the court case, the evidence this far is damning. This boat was off course in a no-go zone, and had no responsible pilot on board to guide it on a correct path through a part of one of the great wonders of the world. In the period it was stuck and hung up on the reef, dragging in the current, then anchored and moving in the current on the reef until it could be refloated. It spilled only a few tons of its 900 tons of oil on board, but it also left behind a large amount of its anti-fouling paint on the reef as it went. And anti fouling paint is one of nature’s quiet killers. I won’t go into great detail, but please look into these yourself through your favourite scientific search engine. This paint contains chemicals that can kill instantly, and are also what are called endocrine disruptors when exposed to chronically, so they also leave behind negative mutations.

Financial damages include all emergency response costs, damage protection and clean-up costs, as well as log-term monitoring and repair of environmental damage from the direct impacts of the ship, and the poisons it left behind. Coal traffic out of the Rockhampton loader that this ship departed from are projected to increase 67% this year, all of which should be directed by competent pilots from AMSA, in my opinion.

I wonder if the cost of coal fully incorporates these types of charges, as well as the cost of the court case itself, as I don’t see wind or solar generators ever being in a similar circumstance, product liability-wise.

Health issues in the Hunter Valley
Then, as of Monday, the drumbeat continued, as the ABC’s Four Corners program began an examination of the health effects of the open cut coal mining in the Hunter Valley. The program detailed a number of acute and chronic cases of asthma and related respiratory ailments suffered by residents in and around Singleton, as well as possibly identifying a cancer cluster. But we will know more about that as the government completes a study, that it refused to do until the day after the Four Corners story broke. Up until now, it has been one GP doing a study on his own.

Whether a full study reveals an acute or chronic health problem from the mining activity or not, who pays? The government and communities currently assume all health costs, as far as I can see.

Energy efficiency and greenhouse implications
The very important issues above are possibly reasons alone for discontinuing the burning of the magic dirt from making electricity. But then let’s not forget last week’s “dead” issues, energy efficiency and greenhouse emissions. The public may be tired of hearing about it and want to move on, but the facts remain. Burning coal for fuel is the most inefficient means of making power with respect to waste emissions and thermodynamic power losses.

Just because we can dig it out of the ground for what appears near to free, doesn’t mean it is. If you also agree that the costs of doing the changeover from all or part of our coal burning is not as expensive as predicted by doomsayers, then the arguments for not getting off coal ourselves, and slapping a great big carbon excise tax on any that we do sell overseas, start to make a lot of sense. Just as big rich countries have the right to tie their financial aid to poor countries efforts to adopt climate change goals, so should we cause heavy users of our coal to internalise the full costs of using the product in order to advance their economies.

Not Dead Yet

Apr 7

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Bad Ideas, Climate Change, Politics | Comments off

Well, I noticed yesterday how easy it is to miss a month of writing anything for the blog. Yeah, not one rant for a full month. Sure, I did get a bit busy with work and that is one good way to shut me up, but in reality there really wasn’t anything to have a rant about that I had not either covered already, or was significant enough to talk about. Sure, a few minor things have occurred, and yesterday I found out about a couple things which are significant, but probably not in a good way.

The first is that the full report of the review of the scientists of the University of East Anglia is out. And surprise surprise, it shows exactly what I stated in my article on the subject in the week after the issue came to light. But you have to look pretty hard to find the story, and you almost certainly didn’t hear about the death of that conspiracy theory on your evening news.

The second item came last night when I found out that Malcolm Turnbull has decided to quit politics and won’t stand for re-election at the next election. So, climate change is sliding into obscurity and becoming a non-issue in the public forum. Those who stand for science and reason lose support, and lies once exposed go unnoticed, as is true in so much of politics these days.

But I don’t intend to go quiet, and will still write on matters of fact with respect to the issue, although my writing will become more sporadic on the subject of climate change, as apparently it isn’t happening. I will just bide my time and try to come up with better zombie plans and stock up on things to sell people that forgot to develop a good zombie plan so that I can personally do better as things turn to shit. Because apparently, that is what it is all about, right?