Right, so we have a new Prime Minister and a government, and approximately 18 months to a new election. I am pretty crappy at making predictions about politics (just ask my buddy BF) but I am going to go ahead and make some more predictions, more as a way of saying what I hope will happen than what will happen, to avoid the alternative of an Abbott led government in a couple years. The only upside to that would be that it would likely start getting regular coverage by Bryan Lambert (who rocks by the way).

OK, so first things first, all the Ministers that supported Rudd in the spill have to go to the back bench until after the next election. Unless that happens, their will be no good way to ensure leaks, backgrounding and undermining of the government do not occur as they did since Gillard took the job from Rudd. He is as treacherous as they come, based on the revelations of the past 5 days, and anyone who supported him can’t remain in the Cabinet, or we risk Rudd getting ahold of too much information at the wrong time and using it to his own good, but not the Labor Party’s.

Next, Gillard and the rest of her team need to stop making stupid mistakes. Enough legislation has been passed through this hung parliament for a whole term in government, so just consolidate on your actual achievements and quit trying to come up with new things to try out (especially if they are as quickly and poorly thought up as the Malaysian solution). Focus on real preparations for the introduction of the carbon tax on the basis that it isn’t going to be a big loser after July 1. Focus on getting some gain out of the resources rent tax, and prepare to take the next step in making sure that all of Australia gains from the mining boom, and for fuck sake, keep your eye very closely on the NBN rollout. These are important long term policies that will make a real difference in the country if the government follows through on them well.

And don’t tell any more lies. I don’t mean the non-real lies about the carbon tax. We are smart enough to know that you meant you wouldn’t introduce it if Labor won the election in its own right. We mean don’t tell lies like the one to Andrew Wilke about bringing the pokie pre-commitment legislation to the floor to get him to hel you form government and then not do it. We know it wasn’t going to win, but you owed him a conscience vote and it was the right thing to do. Hell, with a bit of organising behind it, I reckon a conscience vote on pre-commitment might have even had a chance. And don’t lie about shit you know we will find out about anyway. We know you weren’t shocked to become leader, and we know it took a bit of preparation, so don’t lie to us about canvassing polling data beforehand. Just tell the truth. All you folks at the top of politics want the top job, we know that. And those of us in the know also actually love the system we have, where a sitting prime minister can lose his/her job if they can’t maintain the support of their caucus due to backing out of policy promises {CPRS, cough cough} or being crappy at running the place and consulting with the opposition more than Cabinet.

And lead. Lead on the three issues above and get them implemented in a way that brings about a win (or even a push) in the eyes of the public and you have an opportunity to win. Do more shit like taking on members of the press the way you did the other day “end of sentence”. Talk about what you want in clear, simple terms and when you have said you piece, get back to work and get runs on the board.

If you do these things, Labor a real chance of re-election, despite what the pundits have been saying for more than a year. Several governments in the recent past have had worse polling numbers 18 months out from an election. Tony Abbott and his team have virtually no program to speak of, except for the “NO” program. Elections aren’t won on the basis of being against everything, and people vote their aspirations. And finally, things are getting better where it matters. The US economy is getting better in real terms, and that may men that their Federal Reserve will back off all quantitative easing or perhaps even raise their interest rates after another year of real growth. If China is also able to keep things together and its housing bubble doesn’t burst in the next year, our export industries will continue to do well, and our exchange rates will start to drop vs. the US$. As these things happen, things will be looking a lot better electorally in Australia for a government that can demonstrate that it is getting the job done for the majority.