Sgt Hulka Uncut

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Archive for category Good Ideas

The Counterfactual

Sep 19

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Climate Change, Economics, Good Ideas, Science | Comments off

Scientists can tend to be a bit dour. We mean to be, because the evidence in which we work is often based in misery as a means of defining what NOT to do rather than what TO do. So, it is interesting and encouraging to see evidence of sustainability (in this case in relation to biodiversity) does have an effect, or is at least correlated with you making more money. I am are sure their are limitations to the function that exists, and I am sure their are outliers (can’t imagine Jabba the Rinehart being interested in sustainability), but there does appear to be evidence that you can be financially well off and have a thriving environment.

biodiversity

The Wash Up

Sep 13

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Bad Ideas, Good Ideas, Politics | Comments off

It would appear that the Sports Party candidate, that received 1/3 less votes than the Australian Democrats at 1900 votes, will take a seat in the Senate for Western Australia. He will take a seat along side other micro-party candidates in NSW (Liberal Democrats), VIC (Motoring Enthusiasts) and QLD (Palmer United). Travesty? Comic Opera? Conspiracy?

Hardly. And all I can say is let’s hope our Sports Party single-issue guy from WA and the motoring enthusiasts guy from VIC bring enough of the crazy to replace Barnaby in the Senate, as NSW has moved that nut job to the House. Given that there was no website available during the campaign, and the only profile of the guy Wayne Dropulich is confined to a couple of newspaper articles in June, we are only finding out about him now slowly, and you can see him only now starting to clam up and start thinking about how to craft the rest of his policies to his party’s best advantage as he is interviewed on The 730 Report.

Now, I am certainly not saying there is anything wrong with the system we have, even if it amounts to someone basically winning the lottery on occasion, and requires us to find out what a guy like Senator-elect Dropulich thinks on matters such as macroeconomics, science, tax, equity and social issues, etc. after he takes his seat. That problem should be corrected by the fourth estate doing their fucking jobs during an election and not after. But I digress. No, the real problem that needs to be addressed is not single-issue parties, which you would hope the public could look past themselves, but rather the corruption of the existing system that is going on.

In short, I wonder if I am more scared of what I do know about Clive or the Lib Dems, or what I don’t know about Wayne?

Clive is doing exactly what I moved to Australia 22 years ago to escape, the purchasing of elected positions directly with large amounts of advertising resulting in a large amount of free media by rich individuals. I am sure I need not educate you on the average cost of winning a senate seat in the USA, and you will see directly the direct corrupting influence of too much money on public politics. Beware of the Jabba the Rinehart Party next election cycle.

The other serious corruption that is likely going on which is the generation of single-issue ‘feeder’ parties that purposely then funnel their preferences by design into the main party with a broad range of positions that may not be acceptable to the people originally casting their vote for an issue such as smoking, fishing or even fluffy bunnies. The Lib Dems have been most recently exposed for this behaviour by Crikey, which I don’t think meets the spirit of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, and obviously the libertarian single-issue parties appear to tend toward less government involvement in their model to a point that risks anarchy and takeover by autocrats. But the sunlight he gets should sort out David Leyonhjelm of the Lib Dems, the same way it did Steven Fielding.

Fortunately, I suppose, we have a healthy and sound enough democracy to withstand either of these corrupting influences, or whatever Wayne brings to the senate.

The real issue, then, is that the press really aren’t doing their fucking jobs during and before an election. When a party is registered in any state, someone in the press should build a scorecard on them, and require it to be basically a full one, or stop saying their name at all in free media that they cover as news. The Australian Democrats got exactly ZERO free media in the last election cycle except (to my knowledge) one radio interview in SA. Not complaining, just a fact. However, if the press actually did its job in the lead up to an election, people would know that a party is only running on one issue, and isn’t serious (unless they decide they are) and then not cover them further. Similarly, they should cover the Australian Democrats in exactly the same way, and then not mention us again unless our message is compelling.

I understand being excluded from most coverage if our message is deemed crap and people no longer want to hear it, but I don’t accept being excluded because we won’t be part of the freak show, or spend enough money to justify coverage as news.

Now, on to a bit of analysis and a potential taste of the way forward. I have been having a look at the polling place level numbers on the primary vote here in WA to see what effect, if any, the effort expended in the campaign was effective. We did election activities (forums, distribution of materials and retail campaigning work) in Brand, Perth, Swan and Pearce electorates, and here are some graphs (c’mon you know you love graphs) below with some discussion below.

Perth:
Screen shot 2013-09-13 at 10.58.35 AM
Swan:
Screen shot 2013-09-13 at 10.58.55 AM
Pearce:
Screen shot 2013-09-13 at 10.59.16 AM
Brand:
Screen shot 2013-09-13 at 10.59.37 AM

Basically I see this:

•  Where we were able to have a person working polling places, we doubled our vote (or possibly even tripled it if you take into account the slant of the overall vote at the location.
• Where we were able to get signs and information up through the 5 week campaign we tripled out vote (basically just on name recognition.
• There are pockets of Australian Democrats support out there that we need to focus on as a critical mass to move us forward

So, all in all some encouraging findings that point to identifiable things we can do in the next three years to get us back to polling in the 3-4% range at a minimum next time round.

Why I’m Your Guy

Sep 5

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Good Ideas, Politics | Comments off

Hey it’s a sunny pleasant day today in Perth, and so I moved outside campaign HQ today to shoot today’s video. It’s all about the positive message in today’s pitch, even though the grumpy old bastard the message comes from hasn’t changed.

Not Quite Twitter . . .

Sep 3

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Good Ideas, Politics | Comments off

. . . but I am attempting to get the Australian Democrats message down to a more manageable size in today’s lastest campaign video.

Another day, another rant

Sep 3

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Good Ideas, Politics | Comments off

Hey, I did another campaign video yesterday, and yes it is another 5 minutes of me talking, so whadya expect. I am going to try to keep them much shorter, but if I go for the short get to the point type message, it might get a bit blue.

All well, probably take the risk anyway. I can always add a disclaimer in editing.

Campaign Launch

Sep 1

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Bad Ideas, Economics, Good Ideas, Politics | Comments off

Well, Sgt Hulka officially launched the campaign in Perth this morning with a hearty eggs on toast breakfast while answering questions from interested constituents in East Perth, followed by developing a campaign launch video and then did some one on one campaigning and distribution of policy materials. Although, I still need someone to explain to me why launch typically occurs with just one week to go in the election cycle.

Its been a hard four weeks and my feet are killing me, but plenty yet to do in the last week, including maybe a couple more of these:

Campaign video 1

Today’s conversation

Aug 29

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Bad Ideas, Economics, Good Ideas, International, Science | Comments off

The following is the issue of the day as requested by email. I think it is indicative of how to provide cruelty free leadership toward Sustainable Prosperity. I will publish more of these as they come up.

Hi Anthea -

Thanks for voicing your concerns. I believe they are fully addressed in well established policy on the issue, as attached. However, I will elaborate for you briefly so I can demonstrate to you that I understand the issue, AND how to fix the problems you identified. Live export of animals must be eliminated with a preference for the shipment of frozen meat products (including halal conforming meat). Further, we need to address conformance to acceptable behaviour through random audit of Australian meat processors, and insure they have systems in place to meet those requirements. Those that demonstrably cannot or will not conform with be closed. Those that can meet requirements will thrive with new business in processing additional frozen meat for export.

With respect to battery farms, and any other animal production activity, I support the development of an independent and scientifically overseen standards for labelling of “free range”, “organic” and other terms that are misleadingly used in advertising. See the National Carbon Offset Standard for an example of what works in this type of area.

Long term, it would be nice if we could all be vegetarians, but that isn’t going to happen, not even to me. However, I have a long history as a problem solver, including the invention of pollution control devices and development of systems of controls to minimise environmental, safety and health risk in industry, and for the public. Please check out my profile if you want to know more. I and my company practice what we preach, as the first voluntarily carbon neutral consulting firm in the country, we have been carbon emission neutral since 2008. We support communities where we live through things like Wakakirri.

I truly believe I will be the most competent and effective representative you could elect this election, and ask for your support.

Regards,
William Thiel, Australian Democrats Candidate for Senate (WA)
william.thiel@australian-democrats.org.au

EA_CPEngineer_Member_SPOT

NPER 2043071

australian-democrats-logo-2013

On 29/08/2013, at 6:25 AM, Anthea wrote:

Hello fellow Australian,

I am writing to enquire about your policy towards Animal Welfare. I hope if successful your party will give serious consideration to this problem. I am a very serious activist in this area, and disgusted how our poor animals are treated, not only in the live export practice but also in the farming area.

I have watched many videos of how our poor sheep, cattle, hens and pigs are treated. Recently it has been uncovered how sows are forced to lay down permanently to feed piglets, whilst bolted in place, this is happening at a piggery in NSW. This and all the other cruel practices should be abolished and free range farming enforced as in New Zealand and other countries. We are supposed to be a first world country but have practices that not even third world countries allow. Not very Australia.

How to look like the reasonable candidate

Aug 27

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Bad Ideas, Economics, Good Ideas, Politics, Science | Comments off

Today’s observations from a campaigning novice come from my participation last night in a Senate candidates forum in the northern suburb of Perth. When trying to attract votes of engaged community members there are strategies that I think are obvious winners and losers, including:

Winners:
• Get some input on your uniform. If, like me, you have virtually no fashion sense and generally do not look in a mirror before exiting the house, check with someone who does. As mom used to say, it’s easy to be underdressed, but difficult to be over dressed.
• If you get 10 minutes to talk, use 5 and hand back the rest. I tend to over-explain things, especially when they are complicated issues, so trying extra hard to be concise has become very important to me.
• Try to talk last. This one has been very useful to learn. If you steer it such that you speak last, you can say in relation to the filibusters that have come before you, “I agree with X, but . . .” and save some time, as well as come off sane in relation to a point that might be right minded, but wrongly explained or too extreme.
• Study up ahead of time, but don’t use notes. I didn’t get to 95% of what I knew from my preparations, but referring to notes would have been tedious.

Losers:
• Overwhelm. For instance, both Wikileaks candidates showed up at the forum, as did 3 or 4 of their supporters, all in uniform (the black Wikileaks hoodies). Comes off like a gang or less than savoury political party in a room of maybe 30 audience members.
• Avoid polemic, and don’t even use the word, even if you know what it means (I’m looking right at you Socialists)
• Have one idea or policy. I mean honestly, some of these single issue parties really do give the elections for the Senate a carnival feel. As an environmental engineer, I surely do recognise the problems with overpopulation and resource use
• Filibuster. Yes Wikileaks, each party does get 10 minutes to present their case, but not 12 minutes, and not 12 minutes per member of the party at the meeting.
• Present your favourite conspiracy theory. Always entertaining, and I do love me a good one over the water cooler, but probably not a real good idea in front of a public you have not met before, with no evidence, and presented very emphatically (see polemic above)
• Don’t show up. The Coalition, Labor and the single owner Katter and Palmer parties didn’t even send a person along. Clearly their messages are better delivered through paid advertising and they need not actually engage with small groups of the public organised locally.

Given my accent and proclivity to drop the odd topical F-bomb when I get going, if you would have told me that I would come off as the reasonable, thoughtful alternative out of a group of 8 minor parties (including the Greens), I would have paid about 5:1.

Press Ganged

Aug 26

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Climate Change, Good Ideas, Politics | Comments off

Hey, for the occasional reader, or anyone wishing to catch my latest rant, I am actually now doing live gigs.

Funny story. I was looking for an alternative place to place my vote this year, as no way am I giving any of the major parties (Coalition, Labor or the Greens) my vote this time around. So, my buddy the Chairman asked just after the election was called, “Whatever happened to the Democrats?” Well, it turns out they are still around and have been continuing to develop policy since they last held a federal seat in 2008, and it turns out its still spot on.

So, I start to check them out, have some discussions with the guy who heads the tram up over here in WA, then go along to a meeting, and after committing some money, and trying to talk a good option into being the second Senate candidate for a couple hours, I end up being a candidate for the Senate to help the team strategically this election. Because it also turns out that there are one hell of a a lot of people like me this election, and we need a credible alternative. We can and should catch a good part of the protest vote this election.

But, let’s be honest. I have a better chance of coming in most spirited newcomer in the Melbourne Cup this November. But as I always say, if you’re gonna be a bear, be a grizzly. So, in support of the Australian Democrats and with their endorsement nationally, I am campaigning this election for a Senate seat as our second candidate. I have been working the pavement every weekend, talking to prospective constituents about their concerns, and trying to convince them that sound economic policy need not be cruel, and sustainability means more jobs all the time in addition to making sure your kids can breathe, swim and eat without an EVA suit in a hundred years.

Observations from campaigning include:

• You will get ZERO editorial coverage as a minor party in Australia unless you pay for advertising, or you are the butt of a joke. Fair enough, I ain’t complaining, just saying from personal experience.
• The wind is not your friend.
• It isn’t that bad, talking to people you meet on the street, even if they are crazy. See, I’m not the most personable guy (no really). And, I don’t like to hassle people who are just going about their business; so when out in public, I typically mind my own business. I’m wallpaper. It’s a skill. But having to carry out what is basically direct advertising means you want to talk to anyone who wants to talk to you, and sometimes those people have problems you can’t solve, or just want to have a rant, or have views you don’t share (and sometimes are even offensive). But, you know, free speech is a two-way street, and it has been a lot more pleasant than it has been a chore engaging with people during a campaign.
• It’s expensive and I could use some help.

For the record, here’s the issues I’m focusing on, although the party has comprehensive policy across the board.

Aust Dem Flyer 1
Aust Dem Flyer 2

Aust Dem Flyer 4

Aust Dem Flyer 5

Even Paul Krugman misses the point

Jun 11

Posted by Sgt Hulka in Bad Ideas, Economics, Evil Motherfuckers, Good Ideas, International | Comments off

Memo to America, but with lessons for lots of people everywhere. How to kick start your way out of a liquidity trap, by focusing on a root cause. First a definition from Krugman from his very good article on Japan this morning: Liquidity Trap

“But all of this is totally irrelevant to our current situation, where inflation is running below target, the target is too low anyway, and the reason we have mass unemployment is that there just isn’t enough demand, and hence there just aren’t enough jobs, no matter how desperately people search for them.”

But he should finish the point and say why the economy could fail in the manner that it did, and stopped where it did to begin the great recession: the rich took all the fucking money! Or at least they took enough of it already that they caused the liquidity problem that the middle class has right now, which is why that 70% of the economy is not driving the production that keeps all the yanks (and plenty of others) in jobs with ever spiralling wage rises (hopefully based on productivity gains, but that is another story).

See, I’m not a Nobel prize winning economist, or even in the profession by training, but I can still see the whole system of an economy linked together in a synchronistic way. One man’s debt is another man’s credit and all that. Have a good read of Matt Taibbi and Michael Lewis on the con that was perpetrated, and still is going on, but here’s my take on the cause and effect. The rich (banks in particular) tricked the middle class in America into getting in over their head with debt in often a fraudulent manner (I’m look right at you Countrywide) and lot’s of common people did not have enough sense to realise the risk. And the rich took the middle class for their last dollar in debt because remember the context; this is after the slow fall since about 1979 in wage gains by people making a wage. Almost all productivity gains in those decades went to the suppliers of capital to the equation (and not labour or true innovation), and resulted in a significant increase in the concentration of wealth at the top. Look it up, that is published economic fact. So the middle class buying power has been falling for decades, and they supported the demand they were creating artificially with household debt. Then the trigger point and the house of cards all falls in, and even giants like AIG are proven to be fools and criminals (yet strangely enough, none go to jail).

Now the rich will make a show of how fraud was insignificant (or lie, in common language), and how there is just cause for the gains made in the 1%, but that is just maskirovka; the real gains were made in the 1% of the 1% (or 0.1%). And in that club, for every Steve Jobs, I will show you 10 Gina Reinhart’s, greedy opportunists that turned a whopping great big fortune into an immensely whopping great fortune through no real skill or innovation of their own. Parasites that then even turn on their children and deny them their probabilistic right to the spoils that they also did not earn.

But I don’t want to get off on a rant here, and back to my point. With the middle class in (now bad) debt up to their eyeballs, low and falling wages relative to their productivity input, and no one who will loan them any more money for a hand up to get something started even if they were entrepreneurial, where the fuck is aggregate demand going to come from to move the economy along? The 70% ain’t got it, and the 0.1% ain’t spending it. That’s your cause, and your trigger point for the GFC. But it also suggests the solution to get things moving again. Find a way to get some money back into the hands of the people who actually buy the vast amount of goods and services in the economy in the short term (and then we will get to countering over concentration of wealth in the mid term).

Wouldn’t you think that at times like these, when the US government can borrow any vast sum of money it wants without raising interest rates from basically 0%, that it might make a good plan for the government to do major maintenance on its infrastructure? Note here, I am not talking build a lot of pork barrel shit that doesn’t go anywhere, but why not fill some of the pot holes near the CBD of some major cities that you could drive a VW into, or I don’t know, upgrade your electricity transmission network and solve your greenhouse gas problem at the same time. Do some thinking on it, and you will come up with of a number of decent ideas for shovel ready projects to improve productivity, reliability and innovation of US infrastructure.

Otherwise, you can do the alternate plan: go beg those like Gina to buy more jewel encrusted golden backscratchers and hope that form of is demand enough to base a modern economy on.